Kiran Afshan Poster 2023

Kiran Afshan

Asst Prof Kiran Afshan

Quaid-i-Azam University, Pakistan

Ecological Niche Modeling and clinico-epidemiological distribution of cutaneous leishmaniasis among inhabitants of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan

Poster Abstract

The present study was conducted to investigate the prevalence and clinical epidemiology of cutaneous leishmaniasis and the impact of geographical and meteorological factors on CL distribution using an ecological niche model (MaxEnt) in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, province of Pakistan from January 2018 to February 2020. A total of 3418 positive CL cases were observed, and 411 suspected CL cases were included in this study. Fine needle aspiration was used to validate the diagnosis. The ecological conditions of the disease were investigated using MaxEnt models.  Overall CL was found in 69% (282) patients and observed in all age groups. Early and late lesions were classified as < 6 months and > 6 months and were observed in 37% (153) and 31% (129) patients, respectively. The prevalence of CL cases during summer (May-August) was higher compared with those during winter (November-February). A total of 582 lesions were observed and lesions varied in size from less than 5.0 centimetres to 9-11 centimetres in diameter, with 71% (149/582) lesions ranging < 5.0 cm, and 133 lesions were > 5.0 cm.  Most lesions were traced on exposed parts of the body such as the upper body parts 55%, and lower body parts 13%. Out of 582 lesions, the most common was 11% nodular, 32% ulcers and 12% crusted ulcers. MaxEnt model predicts that high probability 0.77-092 values of CL were recorded in the northwestern parts of KP, with area under curve (AUC) values of the training and test data sets being 0.895 and 0.881, respectively. The findings indicated that the key environmental factors were mean diurnal range (Bio2=49.3%), annual mean temperature (Bio1=13%), precipitation of warmest quarter (Bio18=11.9%), slope (9.8%), and digital elevation model (5.3%). The spread of CL in KP province has become a big challenge for public health workers in developing control strategies for diseases.

Biography

I am working as Associate Professor at the Department of Zoology, Quaid-i-Azam University, Islamabad Pakistan. I completed my PhD in 2014 and worked on parasitic infections and published 42 research articles in international and national peer-reviewed journals. Supervised 25 M. Phil researchers who worked on immunological/vaccine aspects against parasites. I am interested in opportunities to develop expertise in immunology and vaccinology to control intracellular pathogens in Pakistan, currently working on leishmaniasis.